叶尔羌河流域气候变化特征及趋势分析

Regional climatic characteristics and its change trend in Yeerqiang river basin

利用叶尔羌河流域五个气象台站长时序逐日气温和降水量数据,运用Mann-Kendall趋势检验和突变检验方法,分析近50多年来叶尔羌河流域气候要素变化特征,利用R/S分析法预测该区域未来气候变化趋势。结果表明:1)叶尔羌河流域属极端干旱区,近50年来降水量呈增加趋势,塔什库尔干、泽普和巴楚降水增加显著,有明显突变点;2)流域气温上升速率范围为0.239-0.375℃/10a,气温的上升均为突变升温,突变时间为20世纪90年代中期,塔什库尔干高海拔山区自2010年后气温增长较平原区迅速;3)通过R/S分析表明,叶尔羌河流域未来气候变化仍然与过去50年来的变化趋势一致,以暖湿趋势为主。

Long time series of daily air temperature and precipitation data,that were recorded at five meteorological observation stations in the Yeerqiang river basin,were employed to analyze the spatial distributions and changes of these meteorological elements in this basin during the past decades.In this research,Mann-Kendall method was used to determine trends in climate data and to detect abrupt changes within the trend and seasonal components,respectively,and R/S method was used to analyze the future trend of climate change.The result shows that the climate of the Yeerqiang River basin was arid; the annual precipitation was increasing in last 50 years,but its trend was not obvious and the abrupt change point did not appear.However,air temperature in this region have showed unprecedented growth rate,and the annual mean temperature increased at a rate of 0.23℃/10 a,and the warming trend hade obvious mutational point,the years was concentrate on the end of the 1980 s to 1990 s.The R/S analysis shows that future climate trend is in accordance with the past 50 years,a warming and wetting evolvement trend is the most likely phenomenon.