碳排放权交易对高耗能行业淘汰落后产能的影响

Impacts of ETS on Elimination of Backward Production Capacity in Energy-intensive Industries

对中国高耗能行业的碳排放权交易(碳市场)进行了量化评估。通过建立一个两国三商品的局部均衡模型以及综合运用基于技术的微观层面的减排成本曲线,区分了非落后产能和落后产能的技术集合,获得了碳排放权交易对于高耗能行业的影响。模拟结果显示,在配额免费分配("祖父制")的碳市场中,可能会造成非落后产能和落后产能的扭曲效应。通过比较部分拍卖的碳市场和基于产出的配额返还的碳市场,建议在中国的碳市场中使用灵活的基于产出的配额分配方式,以更好的达到促进落后产能淘汰、促进节能技术升级的政策目标。

Large energy conservation potential and outdated capacity are two main features of energy intensive sectors in developing countries. Such countries also seek to implement market-based options to further control domestic CO2 emissions, as well as to promote outdated capacity withdrawal and production level upgrading. This paper presented a quantitative assessment of the emission trading scheme （ETS） on China＇s energy intensive industry. The diversities of normal and outdated capacities were modeled after the two-countries, three-goods partial equilibrium model. The energy saving benefits was captured through adoption of technology-based, micro- level marginal abatement cost （MAC） curves. Simulation results showed that the abatement potential would be underestimated if the energy saving benefits was not considered. In scenario analysis, we demonstrated that under given situations （e.g. quotas free allocation） a potential competitiveness distortion appeared among domestic normal and outdated capacities after the implementation of ETS. At last, by comparing the impact of free allocation mixed with auction and output-based allocation, a flexible output-based allocation approach is strongly suggested in China＇s energy intensive sectors, which could achieve the goal of promoting the elimination of outdated production capacity and promoting the upgrading of energy-saving technologies.