城市轨道交通客流预测宏观指标统计分析

Macroscopic Index for Rail Transit Passenger Volume Forecasting

城市轨道交通客流预测作为需求分析的有效技术手段,其预测结果的可信度和有效性将直接影响决策的精准度,重要性不言而喻。通过对北京、上海、广州、深圳、成都、南京等20余座城市的轨道交通现状运营数据进行全面整理与归纳,系统阐述网络客流、线路客流、车站客流的诸多特征,从负荷强度、网络平均乘距、线路平均运距、换乘系数、断面高峰小时系数、断面不均衡性、换乘客流量级分布、车站超高峰系数等客流预测关键技术指标进行特征探讨与规律总结,以期协助模型工作者更好地把握预测结果的合理性。

Passenger flow forecasting is an effective means for demand analysis of urban rail transit since the reliability and validity of passenger volume forecasting results w ill exert influences on the accuracy of decisions. This article states the characteristics of passenger flow s in term of netw ork,lines and stations through sorting out the operational data of urban rail transit systems in over 20 cities,including Beijing,Shanghai,etc.,in China. The key indicators of load intensity,average netw ork ridership distance,average line ridership distance,transfer coefficient,section peak hour factor,section non-equilibrium factor,magnitude distribution of transfer flow,station extra peak hour factor are analyzed. The characteristics of these indicators are discussed and rules are summarized to help transport modelers understand the rationality of the forecasting results.