基于灰色GM(1,N)模型的河北省财政收入预测

Prediction of Fiscal Revenue in Hebei Province Based on Grey GM (1, N) Model

财政是促进社会公平、改善人民生活的物质保障,是实行宏观调控的重要经济杠杆。研究地方财政收入变化发展趋势,对制定当地财政收支计划,合理安排预算,充分发挥财政服务经济的职能,保证经济社会平稳有序发展等具有重要意义。灰色GM(1,N)预测模型,反映了(N-1)个变量对某一个变量1阶导数的影响,不仅可以反映分析对象本身随时间的动态变化,还可以了解整个系统的变化规律。以第二产业增加值、第三产业增加值、全社会固定资产投资、城镇居民收入为驱动因子,以财政收入为考察对象,运用灰色GM(1,N)预测河北省财政收入总额,取得了理想效果,最近8年的平均预测误差为3.913 4%。

Finance is a material guarantee to promote social justice and improve people＇s lives. It isan important economic lever for macro-control. Studying development trend of local fiscal revenue changesis of great significance to the local financial revenue and expenditure plan, reasonable arrangement of thebudget. It can give full play to the function that financial services economy and guarantee the developmentof economy and society smooth and orderly, etc. Grey GM （1, N） prediction model reflects the （N-1）avariable impact on a certain variable1 derivative. It can not only reflect the dynamic changes of the object itself over time, but also understand the changing rule of the whole system. The average forecast errorof the last eight years of Hebei province was 3.9134% using industrial added value of the second industryand tertiary industries, the fixed-assets investment of whole society, urban residents income as driving factor, fiscal revenue as investigation object.