中国橙汁进口需求函数的甄别及进口需求弹性分析

Import Demand Model for Orange Juice and Its Elasticity of Import Demand in China

运用中国橙汁进口月度数据对一般化需求模型(General模型)及其4种嵌套模型(Rotterdam、CBS、AIDS、NBR)的参数约束性、拟合优度进行检验。结果显示:Rotterdam模型是研究中国橙汁进口需求的最优模型。基于Rotterdam模型对中国橙汁进口需求的研究结果显示,中国对巴西、以色列橙汁的支出弹性显著为正,且对巴西橙汁的支出弹性富有弹性,对美国橙汁支出弹性为正但不显著;对巴西橙汁的自价格缺乏弹性但对以色列橙汁的自价格富有弹性。

Monthly orange juice import data in China are used to test the parameter constraints and good-ness of fit of the general demand system and its four nested models（Rotterdam,CBS,AIDS,and NBR）.Thetests show that Rotterdam is the optimal model for the data.Then based on Rotterdam model,the expenditure e-lasticity and price elasticity of the import demand for orange juice in China are analyzed.The results show thatthe expenditure elasticity of Brazil and Israel are significantly positive and that of Brazil is rich while that of A-merica is not significant but positive.Additionally,the own-price of Brazil is poor in elasticity but that of Israelis rich in elasticity.