摘要
冰害是电网的主要气象灾害之一,电线积冰与雾凇和雨凇密切相关。利用1980—2009年河北省142个气象观测站的雾凇、雨凇日数和20个气象站的电线积冰、相对湿度、气温、风速及站点海拔高度,以及近年来输电线路冰害事故和附近区域站同期气温、相对湿度、风速等资料,采用逐步回归等统计分析方法,对雾凇、雨凇和电线积冰的时空分布特征、冰害与气象要素的关系进行分析,并构建电线积冰的逐步回归预报模型。结果表明:1980—2009年,河北省雾凇和电线积冰日数均呈现先升后降的阶段性变化特征,1980年代末至1990年代中期为一高峰期,而雨凇日数年变化特征不明显;在空间上,雾凇、雨凇多出现在平原地区,雨凇中心比雾凇中心更偏东。电线积冰与雾凇、雨凇以及站点海拔高度密切相关,相关系数分别为0.988 5、0.760 6、-0.601 8,但仅雾凇日数和站点海拔高度被引入电线积冰日数预报方程。对河北省电线线路冰害事故分析发现,当气温低于3℃时,导线可能出现舞动;导线舞动或冰闪时的相对湿度都在60%以上,舞动时风速大于5 m·s^(-1)。
Ice disaster is one of the main meteorological disasters to the power grids,and the wire icing is closely related to rime and glaze. Based on the rime and glaze days at 142 meteorological stations,the observations of wire icing,relative humidity,temperature,wind speed and altitude at 20 meteorological stations during 1980-2009,and the ice disaster data of transmission wires and temperature,relative humidity,wind speed of nearby regional stations in the same period in recent years in Hebei Province,the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of rime,glaze and wire icing days were analyzed by using statistical analysis method. And then the regression model of wire icing days was established by using stepwise regression analysis method. Finally,the relationships between ice disaster and meteorological elements were analyzed. The results show that rime and wire icing days existed obvious changes with rising first and then falling in Hebei Province during 1980-2009,and they reached a peak from the late 1980's to the middle 1990's,while glaze days didn't change obviously. In space,rime and glaze mainly occurred in the plain area of southeastern Hebei Province,and the center of glaze deviated eastward with respect to the central of rime. The wire icing days was significantly correlated with rime days,glaze days and station altitude,and correlation coefficients were 0. 988 5,0. 760 6 and-0. 601 8,respectively. However,rime days and station altitude were introduced to the regression model. The dancing of wire might appear when temperature was less than 3 ℃.The relative humidity was more than 60% and above when wire was dancing or ice flashing,and wind speed was greater than 5 m·s^(-1) in the former case. All of above provided some guidance to weather service of ice disaster on transmission wires.
出处
《干旱气象》
2017年第6期991-997,共7页
Journal of Arid Meteorology
基金
河北省科技厅项目"电力微气象灾害监测与预报预警技术及体系建设研究"(16275409D)资助
关键词
雾凇
雨凇
电线积冰
积冰标准厚度
热岛效应
rime
glaze
wire icing
standard thickness of wire icing
heat island effect