学校流感暴发中影响其罹患率的相关因素分析

Influence factors on the attack rates of influenza outbreaks in schools

目的对2013-2016年天津市学校发生的流感暴发疫情进行分析,探讨影响流感暴发疫情罹患率的相关因素。方法收集2013-2016年天津市学校流感暴发疫情资料,应用多元回归分析方法分析影响暴发疫情罹患率的相关因素。结果 2013-2016年天津市共发生50起学校相关的流感暴发疫情,平均罹患率为3.91%。以罹患率为应变量进行多元回归分析,首例发病至报告时间间隔(t=8.988,P<0.05)、首次报告病例数(t=3.393,P<0.05)对疫情的罹患率有影响。结论提高疫情报告及时性,及早采取控制措施是减少学校流感暴发疫情罹患率的关键。

Objective To analyze the surveillance results of influenza outbreaks in schools of Tianjin city from 2013 to 2016, and to explore factors affecting the attack rates of outbreaks. Methods Data of influenza out- breaks in schools of Tianjin from 2013 to 2016 were collected and analysis was done using descriptive epidemi- ology and multiple regression analysis. Results A total of 50 school-related influenza outbreaks were reported in Tianjin city of China from 2013 to 2016 with the average attack rate at 3.91%. Multivariate regression analysis showed that both the interval of introductory case to report （t=8. 988, P〈0.05） and the initial reported case number （t=3. 393, P〈0.05） were the influencing factors of the attack rates. Conclusions Interval from introductory case to report and the initial reported case number were the influencing factors of the attack rates during influenza outbreak in schools of Tianjin city of China from 2013 to 2016.