创业的宏观环境对企业的长期影响:中国工业企业的证据

The Persistent Effect of Business Cycle on Firm Dynamics:Evidences from China

本文采用中国1997-2003年成立的制造业企业数据,考察了创业的宏观环境对企业成长的影响。我们发现,企业进入市场时的宏观环境对企业规模产生持续影响,在经济衰退期进入市场的企业平均规模更大。具体而言,创业时经济周期每偏离长期趋势1%对企业规模的平均影响大致为-5%,这种影响持续至企业成立第5年仍高达-5%左右。研究还发现,这种影响源于创业时的宏观环境对进入企业的选择效应,即经济衰退可以筛选出生产率更高的企业进入市场,由于生产率优势持续存在,从而对企业产生持续的影响。

This paper examines how the macroeconomic environment at the time of starting affects firms＇ growth. Using the data of manufacturing firms founded between 1997 and 2003 in China, we find that the business cycle has a persist effect on firm scale. Firms founded in recessions have larger average size. Specifically, each 1% deviation of the aggregate output from its long-run trend affects the average size of firms born in that year by around 5%. Such effect can last even into the fifth year of a firm＇s birth. Fur- ther, we find that the mechanism behind this phenomenon is the selection effect at the time of entry. Firms born in recessions are more productive. The advantage of productivity persists, which has an enduring effect on the firm size.