中国制造业企业的成长符合Gibrat法则吗?

Does Chinese manufacturing firms' growth conform to the Gibrat's law?

采用中国制造业企业微观数据和分位数回归法,对企业成长规律是否符合Gibrat法则进行了实证检验。结果发现:(1)企业规模与成长性呈现负向关系,且对各种规模类型的企业均成立,从而否定了Gibrat法则。(2)行业内外商资本、企业的国有资本、出口强度和流动性等因素对成长均具有负向效应。其中,前两种因素的负向效应随规模扩大而上升,而后两种因素对最小规模的负向效应最大。(3)企业的外商资本、盈利能力,以及地区层面的专业化和多样化、市场潜力、市场化程度、人力资本水平、创新能力等因素对成长具有正向效应。其中,企业外商资本的提升最有利于最小规模企业,而盈利能力、市场潜力、市场化程度、人力资本水平和创新能力等因素对最大规模企业的促进作用最大;地区专业化的作用随规模上升而上升,而多样化的作用随规模上升而下降。(4)企业的年龄、资本深化、资产负债率、地区对外开放以及行业市场集中度等因素对成长的影响方向具有规模异质性。

This paper employs quantile regression method to test if Chinese manufacturing firms＇ growth conforms to the Gibrat＇s law, using micro data of Chinese manufacturing firms. The empirical results show that： （ 1 ） The growth of firm is negatively related to its size, no matter which group of size it belongs to, implying that the growths of Chinese manufacturing firms does not conform to the Gibrat＇s law. （2） The foreign capital ratio in industry-level, the state-owned capital ratio in firm-level, export intensity and liquidity ratio have negative effects on the growth of firms of any size. Moreover, the negative effects of the two former factors increase with expansion of firm size, while the negative effects of two later factors are most sig- nificant on the smallest firms. （3） The foreign capital ratio in firm-level, profitability, regional specialization and diversifica- tion, market potential, marketization, human capital, and innovation capability have positive effects on the growth of firms of any size. The foreign capital ratio in firm-level is most beneficial to the smallest firms, and the effects of profitability, market potential, marketization, human capital and innovation capability are most beneficial to the largest firms. The role of speciali- zation rises with the rise of size, while the role of diversification decreases with the rise of size. （4） The effects of firm age, capital deepening, asset-liability ratio, regional openness and market concentration are scale heterogeneous on growth of firmS ~