空间接近能促进空间均衡吗?——基于交通发展对制造业增长的非线性影响研究

Can spatial proximity promote spatial homogeneity? Based on non-linear effects of transport development on manufacturing growth

基于公路交通网络发展对于地区制造业增长的非线性影响视角,构建了产业增长门限模型,利用1999—2010年的中国地级地区面板数据检验了空间接近对空间均衡的非线性影响。结果表明:空间接近并不一定能促进空间均衡,中心地区对于外围地区的溢出效应随着可达性的变化存在倒U型变化规律。在可达性提高到一定程度之前,到中心地区距离的缩短会抑制本地产业增长,但随着可达性的进一步提高,可以显著促进地区产业增长。另外,空间接近对于空间均衡的影响具有产业差异,改善中心-外围地区间的可达性,可能会率先促使外围地区某些劳动密集度高、中间投入比重低、最终需求比重较低的产业活动繁荣。这可引导我们辩证地认识交通基础设施建设与区域均衡的关系,理性地分析通过交通基础设施建设实现经济空间均衡的规划。

As transport development is the key factor affecting economic space organization, a question emerges that will spatial proximity from traffic improvement promote spatial homogeneity. Based on the theory of new economic geography, this paper constructs an industry growth threshold model from the perspective of nonlinear influence of the development of highway transportation network on regional manufacturing growth, and examines the non-linear effects of spatial proximity on spatial homogeneity, using panel data of Chinese prefecture level regions during 1999--2010. The results show that the spatial prox- imity does not necessarily promote the spatial homogeneity, and the spatial spillover effects of the core region on the peripheral region has the invert-U shaped curve with the change of traffic accessibility. The reduction of the distance to the core region will inhibit the growth of the local industry until the traffic accessibility has been improved to a certain extent, but then with the further improvement of traffic accessibility, it can significantly promote the growth of regional industries. In addition, the effects of spatial proximity on spatial homogeneity are not the same in different industries. The influence of improving core-pe- riphery traffic accessibility may first boom the industries with high labor intensity, less intermediate input and less proportion of final demand in the peripheral area. To some extent, this article confirms the bell-shaped curve of spatial agglomeration af- fect by decreasing trade cost in the new economic geography theory, leading us to dialectically understand the relationship be- tween the traffic infrastructure and the spatial homogeneity and rationally plan how to promote spatial homogeneity through the transportation infrastructure.