历史没有规律吗——驳反历史决定论

Is So-called“Historical Law”Nonsense?A Refutation of Anti-determinist Theory of History

自反历史决定论于19世纪问世以来,便对曾独霸人类思想史很久的历史决定论进行了一连串强悍犀利的攻击,并形成了一条以"历史没有规律"为首要观点的理据链。历史决定论对之进行自卫反击,但只有两个反击有效,其余的则差强人意。历史决定论的最大短板是给不出一条既可与历史进程吻合,又可与人有意志自由的事实相容的历史规律。既然如此,要想彻底驳倒反历史决定论,就得找出一条这样的历史规律。而由笔者创立的制度决定论所揭示的历史规律,就可以满足这些条件。它不仅符合规律的特性,也确实称得上是关于人的活动的历史规律,同时不会否定人有意志自由。并且,从它出发,还可以实现对未来的成功预言,化解终极原因的诘难和解释历史进化何以可能的难题。

The determinist theory of history dominating human thought history has been severely challenged by anti- determinist theories of history since the 19th century. The primary idea of the forcible anti-determinist theories can be summarized as that there is no so-called ＂historical law＂. The determinists defend for their theories and strike back, but only two of their defence are justifiable, and the others cannot satisfy. That it cannot provide a historical law which coincides with the actual historical development and is not incompatible with the fact of human freedom of will meanwhile is the weakest point of determinist theory of history. Then we have to find such a historical law to refute determinist therories of history. The historical law revealed in my institutional determinism is such a law. It is a law, and a historical one of human activities, and at the same time it does not deny the freedom of will. Also, with this law, the future can successfully be predicted, the question of final or ultimate cause can be solved, and the possibility of historical progress can be explained.