中国林业生态安全综合评估:基于时空格局分析

Comprehensive Evaluation of Forestry Ecological Security in China: Based on Spatio-temporal Pattern Analysis

林业生态安全是指森林、湿地和荒漠三大生态系统处于安全且生物多样性的丰富程度得到保证的状态。作者基于压力—状态—响应模型构建了林业生态安全评价指标体系,并测度了1999~2012年中国及31个省份森林、湿地、荒漠及林业系统的生态安全指数和相对指数,深入剖析中国林业生态系统及其三大子系统的生态安全时空演变与地域分异特征。结果表明:(1)研究期间中国森林生态系统安全呈持续改善趋势,三大林区的森林生态安全状况明显优于其他地区,东部和中部地区森林生态安全改善显著,西部部分地区则有退化迹象。(2)湿地生态系统安全状况总体呈现一定程度恶化,长江中下游地区和西南地区湿地生态安全整体水平较高,上海及河南的恶化程度较为严重。(3)荒漠生态系统安全状况呈大幅度波动且有小幅度恶化态势,南北差异显著,秦岭—淮河线以南明显优于以北地区,但以南地区有退化趋势,而以北地区呈现改善态势。(4)中国林业生态安全指数由1999年的0.5567增加到2012年的0.5813,林业生态安全状况总体呈改善趋势。在空间上呈现"南高北低"的分异规律,长江以南地区和东北地区的林业生态安全水平较高,中部和南部省份的林业生态安全改善最为显著,新疆、宁夏、西藏等地的林业生态安全需重点关注。

Forestry ecological security refers to the guaranteed security and biodiversity richness of the three ecological systems including forest,wetland,and desert ecological systems.Based on the PSR（Pressure-State-Response）model,this paper constructs an evaluation index system of the forestry ecological security situation and measures the ecological security index and relative index of forestry ecological security level as well as the forest,wetland and desert ecological systems in China from 1999 to 2012.Moreover,the paper analyzes the spatio-temporal evolution and regional differentiation characteristics of the ecological security index of the forestry ecosystem and its three subsystems with the application of GIS spatial analysis module.The results indicate that：i）The forest ecosystem security in China showed a trend of continuous improvement during the study period.The ecological security situation in the three major forest regions—including the northeast forest region,the southwest forest region,the southern forest region,were better than other parts of China.The forest ecological security in the eastern-and central parts improved significantly,while that in the western region experienced a trend of degradation.ii）The security situation of wetland ecosystem presented a significant deterioration.The middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and southwestern wetland performed a good ecological security level,while Shanghai and Henan province experienced a serious deterioration.iii）The security situation of the desert ecosystem presented a significant volatility and a small degree of deterioration;and a significant difference was found between the north and south China.The desert ecological security condition in the south of Qinling-Huaihe River Line was obviously better than that in the north region.However,the south of the line presented a degradation trend,and the north of the line presented an improved situation.iv）The forestry ecological security index increased from 0.5567 in 1999 to 0.5813 in 2012,showing an improvement trend.The pattern of the forestry ecological security displayed a high level in the south region of the Yangtze River and northeast China.Furthermore,the security situation in the central and southern provinces experienced a significant improvement.By contrast,Xinjiang,Ningxia and Tibet presented a deteriorating trend in relation to the forestry ecological security,and more attention should be paid to these provinces.