中国粮食进口:卷土重来

China's grain imports bounce back

今年1至8月中国粮食进口量已经实现了16%的同比增长。这意味着2017年中国粮食进口量将再创新高,并且将又一次在全球粮食海运贸易6%的增长中拿下半数。2015年中国粮食海运进口量首次突破1亿吨,几乎占到当年全球粮食海运进口总量的四分之一。

In 2015, Chinese seaborne grain imports exceeded 100 mt for the first time, accounting for almost a quarter of global seaborne grain imports that year. Imports have been volatile since, with lower demand for imports of some types of grain in 2016 leading to a 9% decline in total Chinese grain imports last year. However,so far in 2017, growth has again been apparent as imports have firmly bounced back. So far in 2017, China's grain impor t demand has improved, with imports up by a robust 17% y-o-y in January-August. Soybean imports have driven most(c.80%) of the growth, rising 17% y-o-y to 63 mt, supported by firm demand for soybean products(meal and oil), and larger harvests in the US and Brazil. Wheat imports have also risen by a third to 3 mt. Coarse grain imports have increased by 9% y-o-y to 12 mt, driven by the doubling of barley imports to 6 mt, reflecting firm demand from the malting industry and greater availability of competitively priced Australian supply. However, high domestic maize supply has exerted further pressure on maize and sorghum imports. So, Chinese grain imports have been volatile in recent years, largely owing to impacts on coarse grain imports from changes in domestic policies. This year, with the focus of import growth shifting back to soybeans, Chinese grain imports now seem on track to expand by 16%, and again account for over 50% of the projected 6% growth in global grain trade this year, and set another new annual record at the same time.