低油价周期的比较研究

Comparative Analysis and Suggestions on Low Crude Oil Price Cycle

国际油价有史以来出现过五次暴跌,目前国际油价处于新一轮暴跌反弹后的低位平稳阶段。原油价格下跌给石油石化企业带来巨大压力,油价未来走势的预测成为石油石化企业确定经营战略和投资决策的重要参考依据。本文选取出五次典型的原油价格下跌历史阶段进行多因素关联分析,发现本次油价下跌与1990年开始的油价下跌历史阶段影响因素和作用强度最为相似,灰色关联度高达(0.6781),通过对未来6个月油价走势进行初步预测,认为本轮原油价格下跌仍会持续一段时间,期间内会出现短期上浮,但长期看,油价大幅度回升并超过石油替代品成本70美元/桶可能性不大。因此,建议石油生产和石油加工行业应该做出应对长期低油价的战略调整。

There has been five Oil Price Shocks in the history of International Oil Market; oil price has entered a low stable phase after rebounding from a shock. Fall in crude oil price has caused enormous pressure on petroleum and petrochemical companies, predicting fu- ture oil price trends has become an important reference for business strategies and investment decision making. Using five typical periods of crude Oil price drop in history; this paper car- ries out ＂Multivariate Correlation Analysis＂ and observes that the influence factors and in- tensity of their effects are identical to those experienced in during the Oil Price Shock expe- rienced at the beginning of 1990, deriving maximum Grey Correlation Degree （0.6781）. On this account, it is anticipated that the current fall in oil price will persist for some time during which there will occur momentary rise, but unlikely that in a long run there will be signifi- cant recovery such as to exceed cost of alternatives fuels $70/bbl. Therefore, it is proposed that Petroleum Production and processing companies should make strategic adjustments to deal with long term low oil prices rather than ＂collaborate for comfort＂ while passively waiting for period of unfavorable price to come to pass without intervention.