房地产泡沫指数研究

Research on Real Estate Bubble Index

国内房地产泡沫测度方法多借鉴国外模型,有其自身缺陷。本文从金融支持过度、投机行为方面分析房地产泡沫生成原因,明确房地产发展景气指数与房地产泡沫指数的区别,选择直接影响房地产价格、规模的指标,并确立符合中国国情的统一计算标准。本文通过因子分析,构建房地产泡沫指数模型,并结合单指标空置率,加强对空置房屋市场的监测了解,完善房地产泡沫测度的监测体系。本文通过对京津冀地区不同线级城市数据的对比分析,确定不同线级城市房地产泡沫2002-2016年间的指数情况,得出2013-2016年间中国房地产市场处于泡沫异常区间的结论,建议完善房屋租赁市场建设,健全房产登记和税收制度,防范市场调整期的潜在风险。

The domestic real estate bubble measure method learns from the foreign model, it is not completely in line with China＇s objective reality. This article bases on the causes of the real estate bubble financial over-support, speculative behavior analysis, makes a clear distinction between real estate development boom index and real estate bubble index, selects indicators and establish uniform standards, constructs the real estate bubble index model through factor analysis, there is also need to monitor the existence of a single indicator of the market situation , vacancy rate, adds stock market factors in the real estate bubble risk control, constructs the risk monitoring system combining bubble index with a single index. This paper makes a comparative analysis of the data in different grades of Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei area, determines the index of real estate bubbles in different cities over the past 20002-2016 years, the first-line city led by Beijing should be the key monitoring area of foam control, meanwhile, China＇s real estate market in 2013-2016 is in an abnormal bubble interval. It is suggested that the building of the housing lease market should be perfected, and the property registration and tax system should be perfected,guard against potential risks in the period of market adjustment.