农产品价格波动对农业保险需求影响的研究

A Study on the Impact of Agricultural Product Price Fluctuation on Agricultural Insurance Demand

农产品价格频繁波动不仅让农产品生产者的收益面临不确定性,也影响着农户对农业保险的消费需求。文章运用状态空间模型和中介效应模型实证分析我国农产品价格波动对农户农业保险需求的影响。结果表明,农产品价格波动与农户农业保险需求之间存在长期稳定关系,并随时间的变化而变化。农产品价格同时通过直接效应和中介效应影响我国农户的农业保险需求。但目前政策诱导是我国农业保险发展的主要推动力,农产品价格波动对农户农业保险需求的推动作用较小。根据实证结果,本文提出了合理有效的发展农业保险,防范农产品价格波动风险建议。

Frequent fluctuations in agricultural prices not only affect the income of agricultural producers, but also makes the agricultural insurance consumption demand insta- bility. This paper uses the state space model and mediation effect model to studyhow agri- cultural product price fluctuation affects farmers＇ agricultural insurance demand. The re- sults show that there is a long-term stable relationship between agricultural product price fluctuation and farmers＇ agricultural insurance demand, and changes with time. Moreover, The price of agricultural products affects the agricultural insurance demand of farmers in our country through direct effects and intermediary effects at the same time. However, the pre- sent policy guidance is the main driving force for the development of agricultural insurance in our country. The fluctuation of agricultural products has less effect on the agricultural insurance demand of farmers. According to the empirical results, this paper puts forward rea- sonable and effective agricultural insurance to prevent the fluctuation risk of agricultural products.