基于系统动力学的水资源承载力模拟研究

Simulation of Water Resource Carrying Capacity Based on System Dynamics Model

基于系统动力学建立了区域水资源承载力预测模型,通过区域未来经济社会发展情况,该模型可对区域未来的水资源承载力状况进行模拟预测。以广东省粤北某市为例,结合当地发展目标,利用系统动力学的水资源承载力模型对该市"十三五"期间的水资源承载力状况进行分析预测,并通过敏感性分析得到了对水资源承载力影响较大的因素,最后为该市未来水资源的开发与利用提出了几点建议。

Based on the system dynamic theory,a simulation model of water resource carrying capacity is built to match up the sustainable development of economy society. Combining with the development goals of the region,the model can simulate the water resource carrying capacity simulation. With a case study of a City in north of Guangdong Province,the water resource carrying capacity simulation is used during the period of "13 th Five-Year"Plan,and the sensitive factor of the water resource carrying capacity is analyzed by the means of sensitive analysis. At last,some suggestions are put forward for the future development and utilization of water resources in the city.