沙盘推演工具在“华龙一号”示范工程设备管理领域的应用研究

Application of Sand-table Deduction Tool for Equipment Management in HPR1000 Demonstration Project

"华龙一号"示范项目作为首堆工程,如何提前识别风险、查找问题,做好事前管理,是项目成败的关键。沙盘推演起源于军事,因其能通过真实的模拟互动找出战略问题,后被引如欧美工商管理教学,作为锻炼检查中高层管理者能力的方式之一。将沙盘推演作为"华龙一号"示范工程设备采购管理领域风险识别的管理工具集,通过推演前的策划、文件准备;推演过程中的访谈沟通、文件调阅、情景模拟、逆向追踪、集体评议等方法,总结归纳基础数据事实,测试项目参与方知识、经验、反应、预知以及解决问题的能力。同时分析、讨论阶段性预测项目发展趋势,从而达到事前管理、风险管控的目标。经对示范工程项目42个重要设备采购包进行沙盘推演,识别风险,并进行有效管控,截至2017年7月31日,示范工程项目设备采购领域计划完成率102.2%,整体进度较计划超前当量天数18.2天,项目全周期进度工作量已完成60.8%。以上数据表明沙盘推演管理工具在示范工程项目上的应用是卓有成效的,达到了组织管理目标。可将沙盘推演管理工具应用到后续核电工程项目中。

As the first HPR1000 demonstration project, risk identification in advance, trouble-shooting and pre- event management are key to the success of the project. Sand-table deduction derived from military use, and was introduced to the business management teaching as one of the measures for examining the ability of middle- and high-level managers, since by which the strategic problem can be deduced through real simulation. Sand-table deduction is applied as a management toolkit for risk identification in equipment procurement management for HPR1000 demonstration project. Via various measures, basic data are summarized, then the knowledge, experience, reaction, and the competence in problem solving and predicting of the project participants can be evaluated. The measures mainly include plan making and document preparation before deduction; communication, document retrival, scenario simulation, converse tracing and group appraisal in the process of deduction. Meanwhile, through analysis and discussion for predicting the trend of the project development periodically, the target of the pre-event management and risk management and control can be fulfilled. After sand-table deduction for 42 key equipment in the demonstration project, as well as risk identification and effective management, by the date of July 31, 2017, the completion rate for equipment procurement in the project is 102.2%, the whole project progress is 18.2 days ahead of the schedule, and completion percentage of the work load for the whole project is 60.8%. Therefore, sand-table deduction management tool is eligible for the following nuclear engineering projects.