中国通货膨胀动态特征及其政策启示

The Dynamic Characteristics of Inflation and Its Policy Implications in China

本文主要以1996年1月—2015年12月的居民消费价格指数CPI、货币供应量和财政支出月度同比增长率等数据为基础,通过分析变量统计特征和构建区制转移模型,对我国通货膨胀的波动性和惯性特征进行了检验,同时还分析了"新常态"时期经济增长、通货膨胀和宏观经济政策的趋势性特征。研究结果表明,我国通货膨胀长期以来存在较强惯性,CPI增长率与波动率总呈相同走势,各宏观经济变量均出现了微波化,本轮"低通胀"周期的持续期可能为3.34年到4.26年左右等。由此提出了政府不应轻易实施全面宽松的货币和财政政策,而应继续采用非常规货币工具和结构型财政支出工具,优化政策结构,在审慎政策刺激的同时要注意其与通货膨胀期限结构的匹配等政策建议。

This paper mainly used CPI, money supply and fiscal expenditure monthly year-on- year growth rate data from 1996 January to 2015 December as the foundation, by analyzing the statistical characteristics of variables and constructing the regional transfer model, the volatility and inertia characteristics of inflation in China were tested, and also analyzed the trend charac- teristics of economic growth, inflation and macroeconomic policies during the ＂new normal＂ period. That China＇s inflation has been existing for a long time strong inertia, CPI growth rate and volatility of the total were the same trend, the macroeconomic variables appeared micro- wave and the current low inflation cycle duration may 3.34 years to 4.26. It is suggested that the government should not easily implement the comprehensive monetary policy and monetary policy, but should continue to use non-conventional monetary instruments and structured finan- cial expenditure tools to optimize the policy structure, while in the case of prudential policy stimulus, the government should pay attention to its match with the structure of inflation.