社会资本能够缓解农户的正规和非正规信贷约束吗?基于四元Probit模型的实证分析

Whether Social Capital Can Alleviate the Formal and Informal Credit Constraint from Rural Households? An Investigation Based on Quaternary Probit Model

本文采用2013年苏鲁两省农户调查数据,在考虑了正规和非正规金融渠道之间相互影响以及样本选择性问题的基础上,结合具有样本选择性的四元Probit模型,考察和比较正式和非正式社会资本对农户正规和非正规信贷约束的缓解作用及其差异,以及它们的作用随着市场化进程、正规金融发展和农户收入增长有何变化。研究发现,不同形式的社会资本对农户不同金融渠道的信贷约束均起到一定缓解作用,其中非正式社会资本对非正规信贷约束的缓解作用相对最大,非正式社会资本对正规信贷约束的缓解作用相对最小,非正式社会资本的缓解作用存在更为明显的"路径依赖"现象。不仅如此,这种缓解作用会随着市场化进程、正规金融发展及农户收入增长而趋于减弱。

Using recent survey data of rural households from Jiangsu province and Shandong province, this paper takes into account the problem with the coexist of dual finance sector in rural financial markets and sample estimation bias issue somewhat ignored by previous research, then develops a quaternary probit model with sample selection to investigate the effect of formal and informal social capital on the formal and informal credit constraint, also the shifty accompanied by the income growth process from rural households, the development of formal finical sector and market process. Results show that both of the formal and informal social capi- tals have alleviating action on the credit constraint from different financial sectors, which clearly manifest the phenomenon of path-dependence from the informal social capital. Moreover, the alleviating action weakened by the income growth process, formal finical sector＇s development and market process.