城乡劳动力转移中的先驱效应

The Pioneer Effect in Rural-Urban Migration

本文使用中国居民收入调查数据库2008年农村住户调查(CHIP2008)数据,将最早外出时间在1984年到1992年之间的农民工定义为早期农民工,基于我国城乡劳动力市场的信息不完全,我们分析了他们在城乡劳动力转移中的先驱效应。实证结果表明,早期农民工越多的地区,当地的农民外出的概率也越高,即城乡劳动力转移中存在先驱效应。考虑到信息传播的质量,我们根据早期农民工的平均教育以及当地其他农民的平均教育进行分组回归,发现教育程度较高的地区,先驱效应越强。本文还发现,先驱越多的地区,当地外出的农民工的行业集聚特征越明显。作为稳健性检验,早期农民工定义的调整以及将1978年以前因外生因素外出的农村劳动力作为早期农民工的替代变量的分析都没有改变文章的结果。

Using the data from the China Household Income Project Survey（CHIP2008）, we analyze the pioneer effect of rural-urban migration. We define those who tried his first migrating experience during 1984 to1992 as the early-migrant which is viewed as pioneer during the rural- urban migration process. We find there indeed exists pioneer effect： The more early-migrant a village has, the more likely the rural labor become a migrant. With the consideration about the quality of information diffusion, we have grouped the sample based on the average education of the early migrant or the rural labor in a village. We find that the pioneer effect will be stronger for village with more education. We also find that in the rural area with more pioneer, its migrants tend to be more clustered in some industry. Finally our results are robust when we modify our definition of early-migrant and use rural labor who exogenously left the rural area before 1978 to be a migrant as an alternative of rural early migrant.