职业代际继承与流动:基于中国人口普查数据的实证分析

Intergenerational Occupational Inheritance and Mobility in China: Empirical Evidence from the Census Microdata

本文使用2000年全国人口普查和2005年1%人口抽样调查微观样本数据,实证分析了中国当代职业代际继承与流动的变化。研究发现:第一,职业代际向上流动率在1950-1959年、1960-1969年、1970-1979年及1980-1989年出生的劳动者群体中分别为11.5%、15.6%、18.6%和20.8%,累计上升比例高达81%,劳动者变得越来越拥有更多提升自身社会经济阶层的机会。第二,Mixed Logit模型回归结果表明,父亲职业对于子女选择相同职业的影响力度从1950-1959年出生劳动者中的26.4%降至1980-1989年出生劳动者中的16.0%,并且中国不同地区间职业代际流动性仍存在较大差异。因此,未来仍有必要根据不同地域特点和人口构成特征,保护和加强代际流动渠道的畅通,缩小收入差距,使人民在制度改革与社会进步中有更充分的获得感。

This article uses linked father-child occupational records obtained from the 2000 micro- sample of population census data and the 2005 1 percent population sample survey trends in intergenerational occupational inheritance and mobility in contemporary explore possible underlying mechanisms. Descriptive fin models reveal that, firstly, the upward occupational dings mobi data to China, examine and regression results from mixed logit lity rates among 1950s/1960s/1970s/ 1980s birth cohorts are 11.5 percent, 15.6 percent, 18.6 percent, and 20.8 percent, respectively, which has risen rapidly; Secondly, father＇s occupation in promoting children＇s propensity to choose the same job has declined from 26.4 percent to 16. 0 percent in the past few decades, while we also find regional inequality in the development of occupational mobility. Based on these results, policies such as regional-specific initiatives and investments are needed in the new era, in order to improve the quality of local labor market and further to increase upward mobility, control and narrow the income gap, and make people have a sense of gain in social progress and development