2016/17年度国内外大豆市场回顾及2017/18年度展望

Soybean Markets at Home and Abroad in 2016/17 and Their Prospects for 2017/18

2016/17年度全球大豆主产国相继实现大丰收,产量达到创纪录的3.5亿t,国际市场大豆价格低位震荡,消费需求受低价刺激大幅增长,全球大豆贸易量达到1.4亿t,"大供给、大需求"格局进一步确定。中国大豆播种面积在农业种植结构调整下继续增加,但仍远不能满足国内蛋白需求,进口量达到创纪录的9 349万t,较上年增加1 026万t。2017/18年度国内生猪存栏将继续恢复,禽类养殖也呈现恢复性增长,饲料蛋白需求继续增加。但国内杂粕产量增加,限制豆粕消费需求,预计2017/18年度中国大豆进口量为9 600万t,同比增长2.7%,增幅明显放缓。

Major soybean producing countries in the world have achieved bumper harvests in 2016/17, with output reaching a record of 350 million tons. Global soybean trade reached 140 million tons, for the global soybean price was in the lower level, which greatly stimulated consumption demand. The ＂big supply and big demand＂ was further determined. Under the adjustment of agricultural planting structure, the planting area of soybean in China continued increasing, but it still couldn＇t meet the domestic demand for protein, which led to a record high of soybean imports at 93.49 million tons, increasing over the previous year by 10.26 million tons. Although the pig livestock on hand and the poultry farming will continue to grow in 2017/18, and feed protein demand will increase as well, the increase of miscellaneous meals will limit the demand for soybean meal. Therefore, the authors expected that China＇s soybean imports would increase by 2.7% compared with 2016/17 to 96 million tons in 2017/18, with the growth rate slowing down significantly.