中国总出口的价值构成及演进研究——基于2000-2014年世界投入-产出表的产业和国别分析

The Value Structure and Evolution of China's Gross Exports——Industrial and Country Analysis Based on 2000-2014 WIOTs

中国融入全球价值链生产体系的程度不断加深,传统贸易统计方法将贸易产品的总值计入贸易流量,对中国实际出口价值的核算存在偏误。文章利用世界投入-产出表和贸易增加值核算方法,测算并分析了2000-2014年中国出口价值构成的产业结构和国别结构及演进过程。结果表明:(1)中国服务业增加值出口增长速度已经超过制造业,但是中国增加值出口的价值构成仍然以制造业为主;(2)中国在参与GVC生产的过程中,出口价值构成的产业结构得到了优化,服务业和知识密集型产业对增加值出口的贡献不断增加;(3)整体来讲,中国从上游参与GVC生产的程度在上升,从下游参与GVC生产的程度在下降;(4)中国与美国、欧盟、日韩的贸易联系在下降,与金砖国家和其他国家(或地区)的贸易联系在上升。文章的研究结论对中国贸易产业政策的制定和对外经济合作关系的布局提供了经验支持。

China continues to integrate into the GVC. The traditional trade statistics method counts the gross trade value into the trade flow,resulting in some errors in accounting China＇s real export value. This paper uses the world input-output tables and value- added accounting method to calculate and analyze the industrial and country structure of China＇s export from 2000 to 2014, studies the industrial structure and country structure of China＇s gross export from the added value aspect. The results show that ： （ 1 ） China＇s val- ue-added export of service industries grows faster than manufacturing industries, but China＇s value-added export is still dominated by manufacturing industries. （2） China＇s industrial structure of value-added exports has been improved in participating in the GVC. （3） As a whole, China＇s upstream participation in GVC is rising, while the downstream participation in GVC is declining. （4）The trade ties of China with United States, European Union, Japan, korea have declined, while the trade ties with BRIC countries and other countries（or region） have risen. The conclusion of this paper provides empirical support for China＇s trade industry policy and international economic cooperation.