基于系统动力学的高铁网络对站点区域影响机理研究

透视高铁网络对站点区域的影响机理,是科学引导站点区域可持续发展的关键。从系统的视角,利用系统动力学构建高铁网络对站点区域交通:人口、产业以及环境的影响机理模型。通过广州南站新城案例,对高铁网络影响站点区域发展进行动态仿真。研究发现:高铁网络对站点区域交通可达性、客流量影响显著;对常住人口、第三产业等高铁站点区域经济社会发展,短期内影响不明显,负面的环境影响可阻碍高铁站点区域的发展。因此,高铁网络的多种影响要素的复合作用共同决定了高铁站点区域的发展,其中交通可达性是支撑其发展的基础,人口活力(客流量和常住人口数量)是其经济增长的关键,治理站点区域环境有助于提高其吸引力。

Examining the impact mechanism of high speed rail network on station area is the key to the scientific guidance of its sustainability. From the perspective of system, this study applies the system dynamics to construct the model of the impact mechanism of HSR network on transport, population, industry and environment of station and its surrounding. Based on the case of Guangzhou south station new town, the dynamic simulation of these effects is carried out. It is found that, the impact of HSR network on transport accessibility and passenger volume is significant, while such an impact on population and tertiary industry is not obvious in a short term, and the negative environment effect brought by HSR can hinder the prospect of HSR-based station area. Based on these, it can be derived that all these effects and its interaction underpin the development of HSIR-based station area, wherein transport accessibility plays an essential role; population vitality （e.g., passenger volume and the population of permanent residents） is the key to economic growth in station and its vicinity; it is helpful to promote the attractiveness of HSR station area by managing its physical environment.