机械设备行业的就业、规模与经济效益--基于全局向量自回归模型

Employment, Scale and Economic Benefit of Mechanical Equipment Industry--Based on the Global Vector Auto-regressive Model

利用全局向量自回归模型(GVAR)构建行业GVAR模型,分析机械设备行业的就业、规模与经济效益在行业间是否存在溢出效应以及行业对利率的响应,结果表明:机械设备行业的就业对其他行业存在溢出效应(-0.5%-1.51%),对机械设备行业的投资在扩大其行业规模的同时,可以带动其他行业规模的扩大(0.2%-2.8%)。机械设备行业的效益提高有利于大部分其他行业的经济效益提高(-0.4%-0.5%)。利率提高将给行业的就业(-0.25%-0.1%)、行业的规模(-0.49%--0.06%)带来负向效应,但对行业的经济效益影响较小;利率在金融危机时期的作用方向可能发生改变。

This paper uses the global vector auto-regressive model（GVAR） to construct the industrial GVAR model and analyzes whether the employment, scale and economic benefit of mechanical equipment industry have spillover effect between industries and the response of industry to interest rate. The results show that the employment has spillover effect on other industries（-0.5%-1.51%）, the investment in the mechanical equipment industry, while expanding its industrial scale, can also promote the expansion of other industries（0.2%-2.8%）. The improvement of the economic benefits of the mechanical equipment industry is beneficial to the increase of economic benefits of most other industries（-0.4%-0.5%）. The increase of interest rate will bring negative effect to the employment（-0.25%-0.1%） and industry scale（-0.49%--0.06%）, but the economic benefits were less affected;the role of interest rates in times of economic crisis may change.