动态因子模型在安徽省乙类传染病发病情况分析中的应用

Application of Dynamic Factor Model in the Incidences of B Category Infectious Diseases in Anhui Province

目的采用动态因子模型分析安徽省近11年常见乙类传染病发病率,为传染病的防控工作提供参考。方法用Stata 11.0软件基于安徽省2004年1月到2014年12月乙类传染病的发病率建立动态因子模型,通过提取的共同因子来了解传染病发病率的动态趋势。结果 2004-2014年安徽省发病率最高的5种乙类传染病依次是肺结核、乙肝、痢疾、疟疾和梅毒,其年均发病率(/10万)分别为73.14,53.79,21.42,16.33和15.25。消化道传染病、呼吸道传染病和虫媒传染病的发病率总体呈下降趋势,模型中消化道传染病共同因子一阶和二阶滞后参数为1.620(P<0.001)和-0.882(P<0.001),呼吸道传染病共同因子一阶和二阶滞后参数为1.242(P<0.001)和-0.494(P<0.001),虫媒传染病共同因子一阶滞后参数为0.881(P<0.001)。经体液传播乙类传染病发病波动较大且呈上升趋势,其共同因子一阶和二阶滞后参数为-1.081(P<0.001)和-0.440(P=0.008)。结论应重点加强对经体液传播乙类传染病的防控力度,动态因子模型可用于乙类传染病的综合分析。

Objective We aimed to analysis the incidence of B category infectious diseases in last eleven years in An- hui province based on dynamic factor model, and provide references for control of B category infectious diseases. Methods We set up dynamic factor models with Stata 11.0 software based on incidences of B category infectious diseases in Anhui province from 2004 to 2014 and extracted a general factor to analysis the dynamic trend of incidence. Results Pulmonary tuberculosis, hepatitis B, dysentery, malaria and syphilis were the top five B category infectious diseases with incidences of 73. 14,53.79, 21.42,16. 33 and 15.25 per 100000 persons in Anhui province from 2004 to 2014. Infectious diseases transmitted through diges- tive tract,respiratory tract and insect were on the decline, parameters of lag dynamic factor in the models were 1. 620 （ P 〈 0. 001 ） and - 0. 882 （ P 〈 0. 001 ）, 1. 242 （ P 〈 0. 001 ） and - 0. 494 （ P 〈 0. 001 ）, and 0. 881 （ P 〈 0. 001 ） respectively. Humoral- diseases were on the rise in general,parameter of lag dynamic factor in the model were -1.081 （P 〈 0. 001 ）and-0. 440（P = 0. 008 ）. Conclusion To prevent and control B category infectious diseases, more attention should be humoral diseases. Dynam- ic factor model can be used in the comprehensive analysis of B category infectious diseases.