理解金融脱媒的实际经济效应——基于利率渠道的实证分析

The Economic Effect of Financial Disintermediation in China——An Empirical Analysis Based on the Interest Rate Channel

在我国,直接融资正强烈冲击着以传统银行为主导的间接融资模式,金融脱媒趋势日益加深已是不争的事实。本文首先研究国内利率水平是否会对金融脱媒趋势做出反应,发现金融脱媒与市场利率之间确实存在正向关联机制。随后,本文通过LT-TVP-VAR模型对金融脱媒、市场利率与宏观经济之间的勾稽关系进行深入探讨,结果显示金融脱媒具有显著的利率抬升效应,并由此对通货膨胀和经济增长造成一定的消极影响。然而随着金融脱媒的利率抬升效应逐年减退,当前阶段金融脱媒对我国经济发展的副作用基本消失,其对经济增长的提振作用更加凸显。

In China, direct financing has a strong impact on the indirect financing mode of traditional bank and the trend of fmancial disintermediation deepening is an indisputable fact. This paper studies whether domestic interest rates will respond to the trend of financial disintermediation. It is found that there exists positive correlation between financial disintermediation and the market interest rate. Then, this paper deeply discusses the relation between the fi- nancial disintermediation, the market interest rate and the macro-economy by LT-TVP-VAR model. The result shows that financial disintermediation can significantly lead interest rates to rise, and thus cause some negative effects on in- flation and economic growth. However, as interest rates rising caused by financial disintermediation decreases year by year, in the current stage, the side effect of fmancial disintermediation on the economic development is basically disap- pearing and the boosting effect on the economic growth is more prominent. Therefore, the government should further improve the multi-level capital market system and guarantee the rapid development of direct financing market in order to stimulate the endogenous momentum of financial disintermediation to promote economic growth. At the same time, the monetary authorities should pay close attention to the financing structure and the trend of financial disintermedia- tion, thereby enhancing the effectiveness of monetary policy.