收入不平等、社会保障支出与家庭借贷行为——基于CFPS数据的经验分析

Income Inequality, Social Security Expenditure and Household Borrowing——Evidence from CFPS Data

党的十九大会议报告中指出,在当前我国社会主要矛盾已经发生转化的背景下,收入分配差距和区域社会保障支出不均衡问题不容忽视,这对家庭经济安全与居民幸福感产生了重要影响。本文采用中国家庭追踪调查数据(CFPS)和与之相匹配的社会保障支出等省级层面数据,验证了收入不平等和社会保障支出对家庭借贷行为的影响。研究表明:(1)收入不平等的扩大显著提高了所有家庭的借贷需求且对低等收入家庭的促进作用更大。(2)社会保障支出对家庭借贷存在挤出效应,且社会保障支出越高的地区,这种效应越明显。(3)社会保障支出的增加,可以减缓收入不平等对家庭借贷行为的正向影响。因此,政府应该继续缩小社会收入分配差距,全面建成多层次的社会保障体系,适度发展消费金融市场,提高家庭安全感,进而增进民生福祉。

The report of the 19th National Congress of the CPC pointed out： Under the background of the major social contradictions in our country have already been transformed, the income distribution gap and the imbalance of social security expenditure in the region can not be ignored, which has an important impact on the economic security of the family and the well-being of residents. Using the data of China Family Panel Studies （CFPS） and the provincial-level social security expenditure, this paper verifies the influence of income inequality and social security expenditure on household borrowing. The results show that： （1） The expansion of income inequality sig- nificantly increases the borrowing demands of all households and this positive effect is greater on lower-income fami- lies. （2） Social security expenditure has a crowding out effect on household borrowing, and the higher the social securi- ty expenditure, the more obvious this effect. （3） The increase of social security expenditure can slow down the effect of income inequality on household borrowing. Therefore, the government should continue to narrow the social income distribution gap, build a multi-layered social security system, moderately develop consumer financial markets, im- prove the family security and further enhance the well-being of people＇s livelihood.