现实与未来情景下大熊猫分布区内犬瘟热风险评估

Risk Assessment of Canine Distemper in the Distribution Areas of Giant Panda under Real and Future Scenarios

大熊猫是全球濒危物种,探究犬瘟热(Canine distemper,CD)等新型传染病对大熊猫未来风险极为重要。采用的MaxEnt模型和4种情景模拟下的未来环境因子数据运算,并结合ArcGIS 10.2软件分析我国大熊猫栖息地CD未来空间分布。研究发现:2050年和2070年栖息地内CD仍有很高风险,且在未来30~50年的时间里,CD对大熊猫的生境健康构成潜在的较高威胁,应加强对该区域内野生动物疫情防范,提升野生动物的疫苗研制与应用等,以便有效保护大熊猫。

Giant panda is a global endangered species, and exploring canine distemper （CD） and other emerging diseases on the future risk for this population are extremely important. MaxEnt approach, the future climate conditions under four scenarios combined with ArcGIS 10.2 software was used to analyze the future spatial distribution of CD in China＇s Giant panda habitat. The results showed that CD was still at high risk in the 2050s and 2070s and posed a potentially high threat to the healthy habitat of giant pandas in the next 30 to 50 years. It suggests that wildlife epidemic prevention should be strengthened in this region. The development and application of vaccines for wild- life should be enhanced, to protect the giant panda effectively.