基于有界信任模型的地铁突发事件信息传播

Information diffusion in metro emergency based on bounded confidence model

地铁突发事件一直是社会关注的热点问题,事件中的信息传播和控制往往也会决定突发事件的严重程度.本文以地铁突发事件为背景,考虑了地铁突发事件的时间有限性和空间有限性特征,在传统有界信任模型的基础上,引入了局部沟通和有限理性两个因素,并根据突发事件发生的时间考虑了地铁停靠前和停靠后两个不同的阶段,建立了地铁突发事件信息传播模型.通过大量仿真实验,发现在地铁突发事件中,局部沟通和有限理性都会导致乘客观点剧烈波动,使得整个系统长时间处于极不稳定的状态;而乘客密度对乘客的观点收敛起正向作用,密度越大,观点越容易收敛.而在列车停靠后,乘客越向车门方向集中,观点波动幅度越大,并在最后急剧收敛成一致,但疏散速率越高,反而会减缓乘客观点的波动幅度和收敛速度.本文的研究结果为地铁突发事件中的现象分析提供了理论依据,对地铁突发事件信息的控制具有重要意义.

Metro emergency has always been the social concerned issues in which information diffusion is one of the most important concerns as sometimes it will decide the severity of the emergency. On the background of metro emergency, the local communication and bounded rationality as well as two stages： before and after the subway stops in the station are taken into account based on the traditional bounded confidence model to create the information diffusion model in metro emergency. On the basis of large amounts of simulation experiments, it is found that both local communication and bounded rationality will cause the opinions of passengers fluctuating severely and the whole opinion system in an unstable state but the passenger density has a positive effect on the opinions reaching a consensus. In the stage of subway stopping, the nearer passengers move to the subway door, the more severely the passengers＇ opinions fluctuate with the end of reaching a consensus sharply. But with evacuation speed increasing, the fluctuation of opinions is weaken. Results in the paper can be adapted to explain the phenomenon as well as the control of information diffusion in the metro emergency.