基于系统动力学的内蒙古废水排放量预测分析

Forecast and Analysis of Wastewater Discharge Volume in Inner Mongolia Based on System Dynamics

随着经济社会的发展,内蒙古废水排放日益增多,过量的废水排放会导致生态系统的衰退,最终影响到人类自身的生存环境和安全,因此,合理地预测出废水排放量对于控制废水的排放具有重要意义.应用系统动力学的模型和方法构建了内蒙古废水排放系统,通过参数的设定定量地预测出2016年到2025年内蒙古废水排放情况.预测结果显示:在9%的工业废水治理累计投资增长率情况下2016年到2025年内蒙古废水排放总量逐年增加,但是增加速度有所放缓,2025年废水排放总量达到13.22亿吨;生活污水排放量逐年增加,2025年达到12.03亿吨;工业废水排放量逐年下降,2025年下降到1.18亿吨.如果要使得工业废水排放量下降,需要每年的工业废水治理累计投资增长率至少为6%.

With the development of Inner Mongolia,the discharge of wastewater has been increasing.Excessive discharge of wastewater will destroy ecosystem and threaten to the survival of the human.So,accurate prediction of Inner Mongolia＆#39;s wastewater discharge volume is of great significance to control wastewater outflow.Here,we use the method of system dynamics to construct the wastewater discharge system of Inner Mongolia and make predictions about total volume of wastewater discharge,the volume of domestic sewage discharge and industrial wastewater discharge from 2016 to 2025 by set variables＆#39; value.The prediction results show if we set 9 percent of accumulated industrial wastewater treatment investment growth rate,the total volume of wastewater discharge will increase year by year from 2016 to 2025 and it will reach 1.322 billion tons in 2025.,but the growth rate of which will decrease.The volume of domestic sewage discharge will increase year by year,which will reach 1.203 billion tons.The volume of industrial wastewater discharge will decrease year by year,which will reach 0.118 billion tons in 2025.If the volume of industrial wastewater discharge decrease in the future,we need make accumulated industrial wastewater treatment investment growth rate 6 percent at least.