基于GM(1,1)分段组合的宽体货机预测模型研究

Research on Fleet Forecast Model for a Wide-body Freighter Based on GM( 1,1)

航空货运市场是全球航空运输市场的重要组成部分,与全球经济、贸易的发展息息相关。航空货运市场的发展趋势及需求直接影响到货机市场的发展趋势及货机行业的发展规划。而作为全球航空货运市场的运输载体,货机尤其是远程宽体货机对货物的国际间运输和交流起到了至关重要的作用。当前主流的预测方法为根据需求与供应的对应关系进行预测,预测过程相对复杂,预测的精度相对较高,不足之处在于预测工作周期较长,难以快速获得预测的结果。根据当前灰色系统理论,建立了宽体货机机队预测的灰色预测模型GM(1,1),并用分段组合的方式,较为精确地预测宽体货机未来机队的发展情况,预测较为快速,效率较高,能满足一般精度的预测需求。

Air freight market is one of the most important parts in the global air transport market, which is closely linked to global economy and trade. The development trends and demands of air freight market will directly affect freighter fleet development tendency and planning. As the carrier of air freight market, freighters, especially long range wide-body freighters make a significant contributing to the international transporting and communicating. The mainstream forecast method is based on correspondence between demand and supply. The forecast process is very complex and the accuracy is very high. The disadvantage is the long forecast period and the results cannot be gained rapidly. This thesis models a GM （ grey model） （ 1, 1 ） of wide body air freighter forecast based on the grey forecast method. The model can forecast the future wide body air freighter fleet development, which can meet norreal forecast precision requirement quickly and efficiently.