灰色预测模型GM(1,1)在沉降预测建模中的应用

Application of Grey System Theory in Modeling of Settlement Prediction

随着我国经济和交通事业的发展,大型桥梁的建设越来越多,其规模也越来越大,桥墩的沉降变化直接影响桥梁结构的安全,对其进行监测十分必要。基于灰色系统理论的沉降监测数据分析和预测建模的方法,对灰色预测模型GM(1,1)建立的主要步骤和建模技术进行了讨论。结合某大桥的桥墩沉降监测的多期数据,并进行分析、预测,结果表明:使用灰色系统理论建立的沉降预测模型能够较为准确地预测桥墩的沉降变化趋势,且预测精度较高。

With the development of our country economy and transportation, more and more large bridges have been built, and their scale is becoming larger and larger. The settlement of the pier di- rectly affects the safety of the bridge structure, so it is necessary to monitor the bridge. The main steps of establishing of the model GM （ 1,1 ） of grey prediction and modeling techniques are dis- cussed in this paper, based on grey system theory that presents a method of data analysis and predic- tion modeling. Analysis and forecast combined with multi period data of settlement monitoring of pier in a large bridge, the result shows that it can predict the trend of settlement of the pier more accu- rately by using this method, and the prediction accuracy is high.