北极通航背景下中欧海运航线的时空格局

The Spatio-Temporal Pattern of China-EU Shipping Route under the Background of Arctic Navigation

受气候变暖影响,北极冰层加速消融,这意味着我国利用北极航道加强与欧洲的贸易往来指日可待。这一变化,打破了我国与欧洲海上运输主要依赖以苏伊士运河为咽喉的传统航线的地理格局,展现了新的地缘经济前景。利用GIS工具及复杂网络理论等分析方法,从地理环境、通航条件、经济成本和地缘格局出发,研究了北极航线的地缘特征和地缘经济联系的特点。结果表明:(1)在地缘特征上,中欧之间的海上运输通道经北极航线较传统航线在距离上可缩短20%~30%,在船舶航行时间上减少10~15天,地缘经济联系更为密切。(2)在地缘经济联系方面,将运输货物节省的时间价值综合到航运成本后,中欧之间经北极航线运输的经济性要好于传统航线;新通道的加入使中欧之间的互联互通性明显提高,大大增强了我国海上国际通道的可靠性和安全性。这对于推进我国建设21世纪"海上丝绸之路"愿景具有深远影响。

With global wanning, the Arctic sea ice is melting fast, which means China enhancing trade to Europe by Arctic routes can be expected soon. This new change, which has changed the mainly traditional-shipping-routes-relied geographical pattern of China-EU maritime transport channel, reveals the new geographic relationship and economic prospect. Starting from the geographic environment, navigation conditions, economic cost and geographic pattern, this paper studied the economy and accessibility of China- EU Arctic container shipping routes and analyzed geographic features with the methods of GIS, complex network theory. The result shows： 1）from the view of geographic environment, the distance via Arctic routes can be 20%-30% shorter than the traditional shipping route while the voyage time 10-15 days shorter. The spatial pattern can be changed obviously. The relation of geo-economy becomes closer. 2） From the view of economy, the economy of the Arctic routes will exceed the traditional shipping route when the cargo time value is considered into the composite cost. The join of the new China- EU trade channel increases the network efficiency, which will improve the reliability and security of China maritime international channels. That also has far- reaching influence on the vision of the China maritime Silk Road in 21 st Century.