粤港澳大湾区及周边城市经济空间联系与空间结构——基于改进引力模型与社会网络分析的实证分析

Economic Spatial Connection and Spatial Structure of Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay and the Surrounding Area Cities——An Empirical Analysis Based on Improved Gravity Model and Social Network Analysis

根据2015年粤港澳大湾区及周边城市共23个城市的多指标数据,应用TOPSIS评价法计算城市综合质量,基于改进引力模型测算城市间空间联系作用,绘制空间联系图直观考察城市群整体空间联系特征与空间结构。研究发现,粤港澳内部城市的综合质量、联系水平均存在显著的空间非均衡分布特征,粤港澳网络联系呈现出由港深穗向周边梯度衰减态势,且表现出显著的圈层结构特征。此外,通过应用社会网络分析方法中的网络密度分析、中心度分析、核心—边缘结构分析和凝聚子群分析,进一步验证空间联系分析所得结论。研究表明,粤港澳大湾区及周边城市在空间结构上表现为显著的"核心—半边缘—边缘"结构和三级圈层结构特征,整体网络联系过度依赖港深穗的辐射带动和中介桥梁作用,缺乏合理的梯度层级。最后为未来粤港澳建设世界一流城市群提出加强经济空间联系、着重构建梯度层级城市体系和扩大湾区经济空间范围和腹地纵深的三点建议。

Based on the multi-index data of 23 cities in Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay and the surrounding area cities, the urban comprehensive quality was calculated by TOPSIS method. Applying the improved gravitational model, the spatial linkage characteristics of the city were analyzed, and the spatial linkage map was drawn to study the urban agglomeration spatial connection feature and spatial structure. It is found that there are significant spatial non- equilibrium distribution characteristics in the urban city of Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay and the surrounding area cities, and it displays a gradient decay trendfrom Guangzhou, Shenzhen ＆ HK to surrounding area, while the whole others has shown a significant trend of layer structure. In addition,based on the method of network density analysis, centrality measures, core/peripherystructure analysis and cohesion subgroup analysisin SNA wereapplied to make a further verification about facts carried out from spatial connection analysis. The study shows that Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay and the surrounding area citiesdisplays a significant ＂core-semi-marginal- marginal＂ structure and three-tier structure characteristics in the spatial structure. The overall network connection relies too much on the radiation and the intermediate bridge given by Hong Kong, Shenzhen and Guangzhou, lacking of a reasonable gradient level. Finally, three advices were carried out for Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay to build world - class city group,which are strengthen economic space links, focusing on building a gradient level city system and expand the Bay area economic space and hinterland depth of the three recommendations.