对外直接投资对母国就业影响的门限效应——基于服务行业的面板数据分析

Threshold Effect of Outward Direct Investment on Home Employment—Based on Service Industry Panel Data

自加入WTO以来,我国对外直接投资步伐不断加快,对外直接投资已经成为影响中国经济发展的重要因素和开辟就业的新渠道。在我国对外直接投资主要集中于服务业的背景下,本文首先从理论机制上探讨了对外直接投资规模对母国就业的不同影响,随后采用2003—2015年服务业面板数据,以投资规模、资本密集度为门限变量,构建非线性面板门限回归模型,实证分析了服务业对外直接投资与母国服务业就业影响的门限效应。研究结果表明:当前我国服务业对外直接投资能够对母国就业产生正向促进作用,而对其产生正向促进作用的主要是劳动密集型服务业的对外直接投资。

After entering WTO, China＇s OFDI has grown fast, which greatly affected the economic development and also provided a new channel for enlarging employment. Considering that OFDI of China mainly concentrates on service industry, this paper first discusses about the influence OFDI has upon domestic employment from a theoretical basis. Then, by studying service panel data from 2003 to 2015, the paper constructs a nonlinear panel threshold regression model taking OFDI and capita1 intensive as threshold variables, to empirically analyze the threshold effect. The result shows that service outward indirect investment of China can positively promote the domestic employment, while labor intensive service industry plays the most important role.