改进的TOMODEL模型在门楼水库洪水预报中的应用

Flood Forecasting Research of Menlou Reservoir Based on Modified TOMODEL

烟台市门楼水库流域内大量中小型水库改变了流域原始的产汇流机制,增加了水文预报的难度。对此,在改进的TOMODEL流域模型的基础上,结合流域前期降雨、蒸发及小水库群空间分布、兴利库容、集水面积等资料,考虑小型水库对流域产汇流的影响,拟定洪水预报方案。应用结果表明,小水库群对门楼水库流域径流的拦蓄作用明显;改进后的TOMODEL模型有效提高了门楼水库洪水预报精度,为该水库的防洪调度提供了依据和技术支撑。

It is very difficult to do hydrological forecasting in the basin where there are numerous small and mediumsized reservoirs. Considering the impact of the small-sized reservoirs on the natural runoff mechanism, flood forecasting scheme is made in this paper based on modified TOMODEL hydrological model and other factors. These factors include antecedent precipitation, evaporation, spatial distribution of reservoirs, beneficial reservoir capacity, catchment areas, etc. And this method is applied to Menlou reservoir in Yantai City. The result shows that small-sized reservoirs~ capacity of runoff interception is significant. And the modified TOMODEL hydrological model can effectively improve the accuracy of Menlou reservoir flood forecasting, which can provide scientific basis and technical support for Menlou reservoir＇s flood control operation.