粮食生产技术效率增长路径识别:直接影响与溢出效应

Identification of Grain Production's Technical Efficiency Growth Path:Direct Impact and Spillover Effect

粮食生产技术效率是粮食生产水平的直接体现,识别粮食生产技术效率增长路径是实现粮食增产的关键。利用1990-2014年中国大陆30个省(市/区)的面板数据,在核算各省(市/区)粮食生产技术效率的基础上,根据拓展的Solow理论模型,构建空间杜宾(Durbin)计量模型测算各因素的直接影响和溢出效应。研究发现,溢出效应是我国粮食生产技术效率提升的主导。其中,城市化水平对粮食生产技术效率存在显著的正向直接影响和溢出效应;农业灾害存在显著的负向直接影响;农民教育水平与人均耕地规模则存在显著的负向溢出效应。由此提出发展适度规模经营、培养职业农民、设立粮食功能主产区、加强财政与社会化服务体系对粮食种植的支持等建议。

The technical efficiency of grain production is the direct reflection of its production level.Identifying the growth path of grain production's technical efficiency is the key to the production growth.Based on the panel date of China's 30 main production provinces(cities and districts),this paper uses extended Solow Mode to construct Spatial Durbin Model to calculate the direct impact and spillover effect of all factors on the base of calculating the grain production technical efficiency of all areas.The result shows that spillover effect is the main reason for the improvement of China's grain production technical efficiency.To be specific,urbanization level has significant positive impact and spillover effect on the technical efficiency improvement;agricultural disasters have significant negative direct impact on that;farmer's education level and per capita arable land scale have significant negative spillover effect on that.Therefore,this paepr proposes several suggestions,such as keeping appropriate grain production scale,cultivating professional farmers,building grain function main production areas,strengthening financial and social services support to the grain production so as to improve the technical efficiency of grain production.