住房公积金贷款新政能去库存吗?——基于2014-2015年政策调整的研究

Can New Provident Fund Policy Help to Reduce Amount of Housing Inventory?——Analysis Based on Policy Adjustment between 2014 and 2015

基于我国34个大中城市2014-2015年的季度数据,利用倾向得分匹配倍差法(PSM-DID)研究了公积金贷款新政对住房市场销售量价的影响效果。结果显示:整体上看,公积金贷款新政对房价的影响不显著,但对楼市"去库存"有较为明显的效果;进一步看,首套房和二套房公积金贷款新政对房价影响均不显著,但对楼市"去库存"均有显著推动作用,且针对首套房的公积金贷款新政对楼市"去库存"的推动作用更大。由此认为,公积金贷款新政能在"稳房价"的同时促进楼市"去库存",且公积金政策如果加大对中等偏下收入群体的首套住房政策支持,既可以扩大公积金新政"去库存"的效果,也是改善现有公积金政策"公平性"问题的路径之一。

Based on quarterly data from 34 large and medium-sized cities between 2014 and 2015,this paper uses difference in difference-propensity score matching(PSM-DID)approach to study the effect of new provident fund policy on real estate market.The result shows that on the whole,new provident fund policy has no significant impact on housing prices,but it has significantly reduced the housing inventory.Furthermore,fund policy of the first suite and the second suite has no obvious effect on housing prices,but it has the significant pushing effect on housing turnover and fund policy of the first suite is better than fund policy of the second suite.Therefore,new provident fund policy can help to reduce the amount of housing inventory while keeping the housing prices unchanged.In the future,intensive support of fund policy for middle-income groups and under middle-income groups can not only ease inventory pressure but also help to improve"fairness"issue.