三峡库区碳排放预测模型

A Carbon emission prediction model in Three Gorges reservoir area

为减小三峡工程对下游地区生态环境的影响,对三峡库区二氧化碳的排放进行预测。主要研究三峡库区的二氧化碳排放预测问题,利用庞特里亚金最大值原理和马尔可夫过程建立三峡库区的二氧化碳排放模型,再将碳排放问题转化为一阶偏微分方程,然后利用四阶变步长龙格-库塔方法计算出2015~2021年三峡库区的整体二氧化碳排放量。根据这些数据,得出能源使用量与碳的排放量有着直接关系,二氧化碳的大量排放很可能导致全球的温室效应,然而一味减少能源使用量会影响经济的增长,如何在两者之间达到平衡就显得很重要,同时为三峡库区环境治理提供数据支持。

In order to reduce the ecological environment effects by the Three Gorges Project in the lower reaches of Three Gorges areas, a carbon emission prediction model was adopted. This paper mainly studies the prediction of carbon dioxide emissions in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area. By using Pontryagin＇s maximum principle and the Markov process, the model of carbon dioxide emissions in the Three Gorges Reservoir was established. The carbon emissions problem was transformed into a first-order differential equation. Then, the four-step variable step Runge Kutta method was used to calculate the total carbon dioxide emissions in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area during 2015-2021. According to these data, it can be derived that the amount of energy use and carbon emissions has a direct relationship, and a lot of carbon dioxide emissions is likely to lead to global greenhouse effect, however, the reduction of energy consumption will influence the growth of economy. So how to achieve a balance between the amount of energy and carbon dioxide emissions is very important, and we also can provide data for the environmental governance in the Three Gorges Reservoir area.