基于SD演化博弈的网络舆情形成阶段主体研究

Research on the Main Body of Online Public Opinion Formation Stage Based on SD Evolutionary Game Theory

【目的/意义】现实中,网媒、政府和网民共同作用引发的舆情事件几乎涵盖所有舆情主题。为探索网络舆情形成阶段主体研究,将系统动力学与演化博弈复制动态方程进行交叉,建立了基于SD的演化博弈模型。【方法/过程】通过系统仿真,分析了网媒、网民和政府的博弈模型,并进行系统动力学仿真,进一步探究已知变量对主体行为的影响显著性,识别影响舆情形成阶段博弈结果的关键变量因素。【结果/结论】以"8·12天津滨海新区爆炸事故"作实例背景,验证模型的有效性,并提出相应的舆情管控建议。

[ Purpose/significance ] In reality, the online public opinion event which triggered by the common role of network media, government and netizen almost covers all of the online opinion topic. [ Method/process ] In order to explore the main body of the online public opinion formation stage, the system dynamics and the evolution of the dynamic equations are com- bined effectively, and the evolutionary game model are established based on SD. Through the simulation system, we analyz- es the game model of the network media, netizen and government for system dynamics simulation to further explore the ef- fects of known variables on subject behavior significantly, identify the impact of public opinion formation stage of the game results of key variables. [Result/conclusion] Taking ＂8 - 12 Tianjin Binhai New Area＂ as an example, the validity of the model are verified, and the corresponding recommendations are put forward.