基于饱和负荷密度的城市远景空间负荷预测

Forecasting for urban prospective spatial load based on saturated load density

针对城市中长期发展过程中的电网规划问题,提出一种基于饱和负荷密度的城市远景空间负荷预测方法.基于粗糙集和元胞自动机理论模拟城市不同类型的用地动态变化过程,根据不同用地类型的土地转换规则预测规划区域内未来的土地使用类型及面积变化;基于logistic饱和负荷预测模型预测出不同用地类型的饱和负荷密度曲线;最终根据不同用地类型的饱和负荷密度曲线及面积预测出城市远景空间负荷分布,并通过案例验证所提出方法的有效性,为城市空间负荷预测的研究提供了理论参考.

Aiming at the power grid planning problem in the medium and long term development of cities,a forecasting method for urban prospective spatial load based on saturated load density was proposed. Based on the rough set and cellular automata theory,the dynamic change process of land use with different types in the cities was simulated,and the future type and area change of land use in the planning area were predicted according to the land conversion rules of different land use types. Based on the logistic saturated load forecasting model,the saturated load density curve of different land use types was predicted. According to the saturated load density curves and the area of different land use types,the urban prospective spatial load distribution was forecasted,and the validity of the proposed method was verified with examples,which could provided a theoretical reference for further research of urban spatial load forecasting.