基于云模型的泥石流易发性评价

An evaluation model of debris flow susceptibility based on cloud model

为了准确地对中巴公路沿线泥石流进行易发性评价,针对评价过程中存在随机性和模糊性的问题,文章建立了基于正态云的泥石流易发性评价模型。该模型首先根据勘察规范选取了14个评价指标,并基于易发性分级标准生成每个指标隶属于不同等级的数字特征,然后利用正向正态云发生器模拟实测样本值隶属于各等级的确定度,结合评价指标权重得到评价样本的综合确定度,最后按照最大确定度原则选择泥石流易发性等级。将中巴公路沿线泥石流易发性等级评价实例结果与采用其他评价方法所得结果进行对比,结果表明,该模型应用于泥石流易发性评价是合理可行的,且该模型概念清晰、计算简便,为类似不确定性问题的处理提供了一种新的参考。

In order to accurately evaluate the susceptibility of debris flow along China-Pakistan International Karakoram Highway(KKH),and giving consideration to both fuzziness and randomness of the evaluation,the debris flow susceptibility evaluation model was established by applying the normal cloud theory.Firstly,14 evaluation indexes were determined by the code of investigation and the digital features of each evaluation index in different levels were generated according to the classification standard of debris flow susceptibility.Then the certainty degrees of measured indicators to each evaluation standard were analyzed by adopting the normal cloud generator.And the comprehensive degrees of certainty were obtained based on the weight coefficients.Finally,the susceptibility degree was identified by the maximum certainty principle.The calculation results of the debris flow susceptibility of KKH by the presented model were compared with those by other methods,indicating the rationality and feasibility of the model in the evaluation of the susceptibility of debris flow.The model has features of clear concept and simple calculation,thus providing a new means for similar uncertain problems.