山西南部两次中等地震预测回顾与讨论

Experience of two moderate-strong earthquake prediction in southern Shanxi Province

2008年山西数字地震台网投入运行以来,在山西南部发生两次较为显著的地震事件,即2010年1月24日山西河津4.8级地震和2016年3月12日山西盐湖4.4级地震,这两次中等地震无论中期还是短期预测,都取得了一定的成效。通过分析这两次地震前异常时空变化特征,发现东郭井水位水温、侯马水管、临汾水平摆和垂直摆等测项均出现较显著的短临异常,异常重现性较好,可将其作为山西南部地区中等地震短临预测的主要依据;大同老震区窗口爆发活动异常对山西地区中等地震有较好的短临预测意义,可作为发震时间的主要预测依据。而发震地点预测必须依据地震活动异常和地震前兆异常来进行综合判别,二者集中出现的地区往往是发震的地区。

Two more notable earthquakes have occurred in southern Shanxi since Shanxi digital seismic network was putted into operation in 2008,namely the Hejin 4.8 earthquake on January 24,2010 and the Yanhu 4.4 earthquake on March 12,2016.They have achieved certain results regardless of middle or short term earthquake prediction.Through summarizing the spacial-temporal characteristics of the anomalies before these two earthquakes,we found that the water level and temperature of Dongguo well,the water tube inclinometer of Houma,the horizontal pendulum of Linfen and the vertical pendulum which were found to have more significant short-imminent anomalies and better abnormal reproducibility can be used as the main basis for the prediction of moderate earthquakes in southern Shanxi.What's more,the abnormal activity of the window of old earthquake zone in Datong due to its prediction significance for the moderate earthquake in Shanxi Province can be used as the main prediction basis for the earthquake time.However,the prediction of earthquake location must be combined with the seismic activity and earthquake precursory anomalies.The areas where the two are concentrated are often the regions where earthquakes will occur.