2014年云南景谷6.6级强震前中短临异常特征和短临预测

The mid-term and short-impending abnormal characteristics and short-term and immediate predication before Jinggu M6.6 strong earthquake occured in Yunnan Province 2014

2014年10月7日云南景谷6.6级强震前云南地震活动性震兆、地下流体前兆和滇西实验场综合预测方案存在中短临异常现象。地震活动性震兆存在云南5级震群连发,4级地震时空丛集活动和4级地震窗活动中期异常背景。2014年9月上旬地下流体前兆呈现不同测点同测项同步性异常和同测点不同测项同步性异常的短临异常现象。滇西实验场综合预测方案于2014年8月24日达到中期预测指标,于2014年9月10日达到短临预测指标。综合分析震兆、前兆和滇西实验场综合预测方案中短临异常,笔者于2014年9月底填报短临预测卡片。在预测时段内发生10月7日云南景谷6.6级地震,预测时间和震级正确,预测地点和发震地点有偏差。

Before the Jinggu M6.6 strong earthquake occurred on October 7 th 2014 Yunnan Province,we found mid-term and short-impending abnormal phenomenon from seismic omen in Yunnan Province,underground fluids omen and the comprehensive prediction scheme of Western Yunnan Earthquake Prediction Study Area.The seismic omen appeared as bursts of M5 earthquake swarm,time and space clustering of M4 earthquake,the midterm abnormal background of M4 seismic window in Yunnan Province.In early September2014,the underground fluids omen showed short-impending abnormal phenomenon that synchronous anomalies from one observation item of different stations and different observations of one station.The comprehensive prediction scheme of Western Yunnan Earthquake Prediction Study Area reached the mid-term predictive target on August 24 th 2014 and reached the short-impending predictive target on September 10 th 2014.The author reported a short-impending prediction after synthesized the seismic,underground fluids omen and comprehensive prediction scheme.The Jinggu M6.6 earthquake occurred in the forecast time bucket of this prediction with correct occurrence time and magnitude and biased location.