基于随机合作博弈的水电工程EPC项目风险分担研究

Research on Risk Sharing of EPC Project of Hydropower Project Based on Random Cooperative Game

水电工程EPC项目具有工程大型性、施工复杂性、影响全局性等特点,直接决定了参与方在项目实施过程中必然面临众多风险。合理的风险分担不仅能满足各参与方效用最大,还可提高项目的风险管理水平。鉴于此,应用随机合作博弈理论,构建参与方之间的最优合作博弈模型,在基于参与方风险偏好的基础上,实现双方之间的风险转移。结果分析表明,该模型既可确定各参与方最优风险分担的比例,又可使风险转移后的项目总风险降低,实现了合作效率。

The EPC project of hydropower project has the characteristics of large engineering, construction complexity and in-fluence of the overall situation, which directly determines the risk that the participant will face many risks in the project imple-mentation process. Reasonable risk sharing can not only meet the maximum effectiveness of the participants, but also improve the level of risk management. In view of this, the stochastic cooperative game theory is used to construct the optimal cooperative game model among the participants, and the risk transfer between the two sides is realized on the basis of the risk preference of the par-ticipant. The results show that the model can determine the proportion of the optimal risk sharing among the participants, and re-duce the total risk of the project after the risk transfer, and realize the cooperation efficiency.