秘鲁M_w≥6.9地震趋势判断与时空对称规律

Space-time symmetry and tendency judgement of M_w≥6.9 earthquake in Peru

选取秘鲁地区1970年以来M_w≥6.9的地震数据,根据可公度性理论,提取秘鲁强震的可公度信息,采用蝴蝶结构图、可公度网络结构图和震中迁移方法,探索该地区强震活动的时空对称性,同时对可能触发地震的天文现象与地震灾害的发生进行相关分析,进一步验证趋势判断结果,发现相关规律.研究结果表明:1970年以来秘鲁M_w≥6.9地震具有可公度性,2019年在秘鲁北部(73°W,11°S附近)发生中深源地震的信号较强;太阳活动、地球自转、月球运动与秘鲁地震的发生具有一定相关性,秘鲁M_w≥6.9地震发生在太阳活动峰值年、下降段的占77.78%,发生在太阳活动双周期的占66.67%,发生在地球自转变化率较大年份的占60%,朔月前后是地震频发期(占44.44%),朔月、下弦月前后地震发生次数达83.33%.

Based on the seismic data(M_w ≥6.9)in Peru,the signal intensity of the earthquakes tendency is analyzed and judged by the methods of commensurability information according to the theory of commensurability.The butterfly structure diagram,commensurability structure system and epicenter migration approach are employed to prove the reliability of the forecast result and reveal how the astronomical factors affect strong earthquake activities.It shows that the seismic activities of M_w≥6.9 in Peru since 1970 exhibit obvious commensurability,the tendency of an intermediate focus earthquake occurring in 2019 is strong with the random probability of 55.56%.Besides,the great earthquakes in Peru have a significant relationship with the solar activity,earth's rotation and lunar movement:Previous earthquakes mostly occurred in the solar activity peak and decline period,the double cycle of sunspot and the years with variance of the Earth's rotation rate;Earthquake unlikely occurred in full moon and twilight moon days.