地方国库现金流预测问题探析

Discussion of the Forecast of Cash Flow of Local Treasury

截止到2017年2月,省级国库现金管理在全国已正式全面铺开。精确的国库现金流预测是地方国库现金管理的核心和重要技术支撑,但是地方现金流预测仍存在预测对象范围和口径不完善、模型适用尚待探讨、滚动验证和持续误差修正不足等问题。原因主要是目前我们财政预算编制执行机制仍不完善、地方财政专户设置不规范、准确的预测现金流数据难获取、实践分析能力和预测经验不足。为此我们提出了尽快实现"国库收支一本账",加强预算编制和执行管理等建议,以期为当前地方国库现金流预测问题提供有益借鉴。

As of February 2017, the cash management of the provincial treasury has been officially launched in China. Exact cash flow forecasting of the state treasury is the core and important technical support of the cash management of the local treasury. However, there are still some problems in predicting the local cash flow, such as the scope and caliber of the forecasting object, the apphcation of the model, the insu^cient verification of the roiling verification and the continuous correction of the error. The main reason is that at present, the implementation mechanism of fiscal budgeting is still not perfect, the local financial special accounts are set up with irregularities, the data of cash flow forecasting is difficuh to obtain accurately, the practical analysis ability and the forecasting experience are not enough. To this end, we put forward the proposal of realizing a ＂Treasury receipt and disbursement as soon as possible＂ and strengthening budget preparation and execution management with a view to providing useful reference for the current local cash flow forecasting.