内在失衡与外部冲击:论美阿巴反恐联盟的困境和重构

Internal Imbalances and External Shocks: The Dilemma faced by the US-Afghanistan-Pakistan Counter-Terror Alliance and its Re-construction

奥巴马政府2009年提出要将阿巴进行捆绑式合作,提出建立美阿巴反恐联盟。本文以安全合作联盟的相关理论作为研究视角,剖析了该反恐联盟八年多来的演变历程。该联盟虽然收获了一定的反恐成果,但面临的考验更为突出。从内部来看,美阿巴在互动中陷入了"相互依赖"无法兑现、"责任承担向反恐能力"转换失败,以及"利益关切"难以协调等困境;从外部来看,印度和俄罗斯等多重角力在该地区推进,基地、伊斯兰国(ISIS)、阿富汗塔利班与巴基斯坦塔利班等威胁演变升级,给合作带来强劲冲击。由此,美阿巴反恐联盟的运转面临着分化与重构的可能:美方在联盟中"相对能力"日益下降且该趋势难以逆转,阿方因难以摆脱"被抛弃"的恐慌情绪并寻求更多外部力量的支持,而巴方从联盟中遭到排挤并引发新一轮安全合作关系重组等。

In 2009,the Obama Administration proposed the integration of its cooperation with Afghanistan and Pakistan,and proposed the US-AfP ak Counter Terror Alliance. This article relies on theories of cooperative security alliances to analyze the evolution of this counter-terror alliance over the past 8 years. While the alliance did experience a number of key achievements,the challenges it has faced are much more prominent. In terms of internal dynamics,the US,Afghanistan and Pakistan have been suffering from the low effect of mutual dependence,the failure to transfer related responsibilities and obligations to enhanced counter-terror strengths,and the poor coordination of interests among themselves. In termsof external dynamics,India,Russia and other states have also continued to advance interests in this region,while Al-Qaeda,ISIS,the Afghan Taliban,and the Pakistani Taliban have all evolved into growing threats to the region,bringing external shocks to counter-terror cooperation. As such,the US-AfP ak Counter-Terror Alliance has fractured to the point that it faces the need for re-construction.At present,the relative leading role of the US within the alliance has been weakening,and it is unlikely that this trend can be reversed. For its part,Afghanistan finds it difficult to put aside sentiment that it will possibly be abandoned,and continues to eagerly seek other sources of external assistance.Meanwhile,Pakistan has been effectively pushed out of the alliance which may lead to a re-structuring of its security relations.